GLOBE Launches Student El Niņo Experiment
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Dr. Dixon Butler, GLOBE Chief
Scientist |
An El Niņo is occurring!For the first time since the GLOBE
program began measuring the environment, an El Niņo is underway in
the tropical Pacific. All early indications are that it is a big
one! GLOBE students can help scientists study this important
phenomena.
What is an El Niņo?El Niņo is a major shift in the
ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific. The atmosphere and
oceans of our planet are always in motion, and these motions
generally follow specific circulation patterns. In the equatorial
Pacific Ocean, there are three patterns -- a normal pattern, an El
Niņo or warm pattern, and a cold pattern sometimes called a La Niņa
pattern. The warm and cold terms describe conditions in the eastern
tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niņo patterns usually persist for one to
two years.
Using buoys, satellites, and island monitoring stations,
scientists observed a shift to the El Niņo pattern beginning in
April 1997. This shift is expected to affect the circulation
patterns in other regions as well. Scientists call this overall
phenomenon the El Niņo Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short.
What are the effects of an El Niņo?The effects of an El
Niņo event are first noticed in the countries near the equator
bordering the Pacific ocean. For example, Ecuador experiences severe
rains and flooding while much of northern Australia has a drought.
After a few months, the regions affected grow to include the
temperate zones, particularly the subtropics.
Based on past ENSO events and on models of the circulation of the
atmosphere and oceans, scientists are predicting abnormally wet,
dry, warm, or cold conditions for different regions at different
times. These predictions are really hypotheses that can be tested by
observing what actually happens to air temperature, precipitation,
soil moisture, and other environmental properties. The maps below
show one set of predictions based on past events. Maps of historical
data and model predictions also are available as special GLOBE
visualizations.
You can contribute to the first GLOBE El Niņo
Experiment!GLOBE students can help test these predictions or
hypotheses for their areas by taking GLOBE measurements faithfully
and carefully during the coming months. Together, we can conduct the
first GLOBE El Niņo Experiment! The predictions given in the maps
above focus on temperature and moisture, so special effort should be
devoted to your measurements of air, surface water, and soil
temperature, solid and liquid precipitation, and soil moisture. Your
other GLOBE measurements remain important as well and offer
additional opportunities to help scientists understand the full
effects of El Niņo. Remember that even if the predictions for your
area are that there will be no effect, that is still a hypothesis
you can test.
If your school is new to GLOBE, this is a good reason to get
going; the El Niņo will not wait. If your school already has been
taking measurements, this is a great time to expand your
measurements and to take data as frequently as requested in the
current GLOBE II protocols. The GLOBE investigators, other
scientists, and myself are all interested in the results and will
work with you as our experiment proceeds.
Suggested ActivitiesStudy the prediction maps, and
determine the specific hypothesis of how El Niņo was predicted
affect the climate in your area from December 1997 to February 1998.
Develop a specific measurement plan that your school will follow in
collecting measurements from now to March 1998 to test this
hypothesis. Review any past data from your school or other data from
near-by measurements to determine the monthly average temperatures
and monthly total precipitation for the last two years. These data
give you a basis with which to compare. Together, your school
specific hypothesis, measurement plan, and historical data base
provide the framework for your component in the first GLOBE El Niņo
Experiment!
All GLOBE schools have a chance to work together in this
experiment. Select another GLOBE school in a different part of the
world and determine the specific hypothesis for their area just as
you did for your school. What data should they take to test the
hypothesis for their location? Locate historic data for their school
or area. Use GLOBEMail or other means to correspond with the school
you have selected. If both schools are willing, you can share and
compare your measurements as the El Niņo proceeds. Working together
should help both schools to better understand what is happening
globally as a result of El Niņo.
More to comeWatch for more messages from scientists about
El Niņo, additional maps showing different predictions for the
months ahead, and new learning activities. Also look for reports
from GLOBE schools about unusual environmental phenomena in their
areas which may be related to ENSO.
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